Covid-19 Projections in ParaguayThe publication was made within the PINV20-40 project co-financed by the National Council of Science, and Technology (CONACYT) with resources from the FEEI
Projection of possible new Infected/Daily reported
Estimated: This curve shows the daily estimated infections after correcting for bias due to the testing rate.
Percentile 75: Scenario using the historical representative high contagion rate in Paraguay.
Percentile 25: Scenario using the representative low contagion rate history in Paraguay.
10% Increase: Scenario assuming that the measures are relaxed by 10% with respect to the last month.
20% Reduction: Scenario assuming that the measures are tightened by 20% with respect to the last month.
Plateau: Scenario for the plateau (Replay number equal to unity).
Last Month: Scenario using the average transmissibility of the last month.
Chart Settings
Smoothed data
Date range
Uncertainty
Daily death projection
Percentile 75: Scenario using the historical representative high contagion rate in Paraguay.
Percentile 25: Scenario using the representative low contagion rate history in Paraguay.
10% Increase: Scenario assuming that the measures are relaxed by 10% with respect to the last month.
20% Reduction: Scenario assuming that the measures are tightened by 20% with respect to the last month.
Plateau: Scenario for the plateau (Replay number equal to unity).
Last Month: Scenario using the average transmissibility of the last month.
Chart Settings
Smoothed data
Date range
Uncertainty
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
The graph shows the evolution of the proportions of positive cases that pass to be hospitalized, intensive care unit and deceased cases
Percentile 75: Scenario using the historical representative high contagion rate in Paraguay.
Percentile 25: Scenario using the representative low contagion rate history in Paraguay.
10% Increase: Scenario assuming that the measures are relaxed by 10% with respect to the last month.
20% Reduction: Scenario assuming that the measures are tightened by 20% with respect to the last month.
Plateau: Scenario for the plateau (Replay number equal to unity).
Last Month: Scenario using the average transmissibility of the last month.
Chart Settings
Smoothed data
Date range
Uncertainty
PROPORTIONS
The effective reproduction number, R, represents the number of new cases that is generated from a positive case, according to cases reported by the Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare of Paraguay.
When R = 1, each positive case infects only one more person and in this case the epidemic remains stable, observing a plateau in the number of cases.
When R is greater than 1, each positive case infects more than one person and in this case the epidemic is expanding and increases positive cases.
When R is less than 1, each positive case infects (on average) less than one person, and in this case the epidemic is in contraction and decreases positive cases.
Percentile 75: Scenario using the historical representative high contagion rate in Paraguay.
Percentile 25: Scenario using the representative low contagion rate history in Paraguay.
10% Increase: Scenario assuming that the measures are relaxed by 10% with respect to the last month.
20% Reduction: Scenario assuming that the measures are tightened by 20% with respect to the last month.
Plateau: Scenario for the plateau (Replay number equal to unity).
Last Month: Scenario using the average transmissibility of the last month.
Chart Settings
Smoothed data
Date range
Uncertainty